Election certainty to lift confidence: what the Labor majority means

LJ Hooker Head of Research & Business Intelligence Mathew Tiller has provided his expert commentary on how the 2025 federal election result will impact the property market in the short, medium and long term.

The 2025 federal election is over and the result is clear. A strong majority win for the Labor government ends months of political uncertainty. For the housing market, that brings renewed confidence.

With a stable government in place, buyers, sellers and developers now have the certainty to make decisions. There’s no sudden policy shift, just a continuation of the current direction with a few new promises added in.

Labor’s housing platform is broad. Existing programs like the Housing Australia Future Fund (30,000 social and affordable homes), the National Housing Accord (targeting 1.2 million homes over five years), and the Help to Buy shared equity scheme are all staying in place. The Home Guarantee Scheme, which supports low-deposit buyers, has been expanded.

New commitments include 100,000 homes built exclusively for first home buyers, more generous access to low-deposit finance, build-to-rent tax incentives, and a two-year ban on foreign investors buying established homes. There’s also support for the construction workforce, via fee-free TAFE, apprentice incentives and planning system reforms to speed up approvals.

Many of these policies aim to boost supply but that takes time. In the short term, demand-side measures (especially for first home buyers) will drive more competition for the limited number of homes available, putting pressure on prices.

The broader fundamentals are still strong. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut rates again this year. Population growth remains high. Listings are up, but not enough to tip the market into oversupply. Vacancy rates are low and rental demand is still running hot.

A price surge isn’t expected, but steady growth is. Lower rates, buyer confidence and government support will continue to underpin demand. For now, the return of political certainty is a positive for the residential market.

What to keep an eye on:

• Interest rate cuts could bring more buyers into the market.
• First home buyer demand will remain high with expanded schemes.
• New supply needs to be delivered, not just promised.
• Price growth should continue but at a more moderate pace.
• Rents likely to stay elevated until more stock is delivered.
• Confidence is back, and that’s good news for housing.

Housing policy impact (if targets are met)